The Influence of Perceived Undervaluation on the Duration of Share Repurchase Programmes

Abstract

This thesis examines whether perceived undervaluation—measured using eight market-based proxies—leads, ceteris paribus, to shorter share repurchase programme announcements and a higher probability of tender offers over open market repurchases. Using ordinary least squares and logistic regressions on 329 German repurchase announcements from 2016 to 2025, the analysis finds no significant link between perceived undervaluation and either programme duration or repurchase method. Instead, repurchase size and trading volume emerge as the key drivers of programme design. These results suggest that, in Germany, repurchase structures are driven more by executional factors than by perceived undervaluation. The findings contribute to the literature on corporate payout policy by providing new evidence on the informational content of repurchase programme characteristics in a European market setting.

Keywords: share repurchases; undervaluation; open market repurchases; tender offers